Brent crude oil price drops below $86 in face of rising global supply

Goldman Sachs forecasts brent crude oil prices may drop next year. Wonder if this will have an impact at the US gas pumps as predicted in the UK?

This article titled “Brent crude oil price drops below in face of rising global supply” was written by Sean Farrell, for The Guardian on Monday 27th October 2014 12.49 UTC

Goldman Sachs has forecast that brent crude could drop in price to a barrel next year as it slashed its oil price estimates due to a global supply glut.

The investment bank said oil could fall to a barrel in the second quarter of next year as production growth from countries outside the Opec countries outpaces demand.

“Non-Opec production has been delivering consistent record growth since May 2013, allowing the market to cope with an almost complete shutdown of production in Libya, sanctions on Iran, and slowing production growth in Iraq … A lower oil-price environment with increased volatility is likely to prove challenging for the whole oil sector.”

The Goldman report came as the price of Brent crude for delivery December fell by as much as .02 to .11 a barrel in London on Monday. The price has fallen by about a quarter over the past five months. Goldman has forecast that the price will stay flat in the New year, as it estimated that Brent crude will cost a barrel in the first quarter of 2015, down from a previous forecast of 0.

Goldman’s shift makes it the most pessimistic of the big banks cutting forecasts as worries grow about the prospects for global growth. Last week Standard Chartered analysts reduced their 2015 forecast for Brent crude from 0 a barrel to 5.

The fall in oil prices has accelerated in recent weeks, with supplies in abundance as leading Opec members resisted calls to cut production. The US, in the midst of a shale oil boom, is producing at the fastest rate in almost three decades while Russian output is close to a post-Soviet record. Goldman expects production to increase in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.

At the same time, doubts are rising about economic growth. The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts for this year and 2015 earlier this month, warning that the world economy might never achieve the pace of expansion achieved before the financial crisis. Recent economic figures from the US have been weak and growth in China, the second biggest oil consumer after the US, has fallen to a five-year low.

Growth in demand has averaged 630,000 barrels a day this year, less than half Goldman’s initial forecast for 2014.

The 12 mainly Middle Eastern Opec members meet at the end of next month to discuss adjusting the output target of 30m barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and a member of Opec, has indicated it is content to maintain supply levels.

Opec, which produces about 40% of the world’s oil, will lose its influence as a “first-mover swing producer” as output from US shale reserves erodes Opec’s pricing power, the Goldman analysts said.

The falling price of oil could spell bad news for Britain’s big oil companies BP and Royal Dutch Shell, which report their third-quarter results this week starting with BP on Tuesday.

But for hard-pressed households, falling market prices are starting to feed through to the petrol pumps. Asda announced that from today it was reducing the price of petrol and diesel by 2p a litre. Morrisons followed by saying it would cut petrol and diesel by up to 2p a litre.

Asda said the price of its petrol would be fall to 120.7p a litre and that diesel would be cut to 124.7p a litre – its lowest prices since December 2010.

The AA’s head of roads policy, Paul Watters, said: “These latest price moves are a timely boost for UK families as they see fuel consumption go up with the start of winter driving and the heating being switched on at home.”

Simon Williams, fuel spokesman for the RAC, said there was still a big gap between wholesale and retail prices, allowing prices at petrol stations to fall further. “Oil continues to be pumped way above global demand which, combined with a strong pound, is good news for motorists,” he added.

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